Aurika Vanckavičienė, Jūratė Macijauskienė, Algidas Basevičius, Aurelija Blaževičienė


Over the last two decades, a number of studies have been conducted on the planning of human resources in various professional qualifications of the healthcare sector in various parts of the world. The studies evaluated the supply and demand (as well as factors affecting them) of human resources in healthcare, yet no studies have been conducted in Lithuania on the planning of the number of radiographers as human resources in the healthcare system. The aim of this study was to estimate the prospective number of students accepted for studies in radiography up to 2030 in order to satisfy the need for these specialists in the labor market. Methods. The prognostication of the number of students accep- ted for studies in radiography is part of a more extensive study “The Prognosis of the Supply and Demand for Radiographers in Lithuania for 2012 – 2030”, where the supply and demand for those specialists were prognosticated according to two scenarios – the mean and the prospective ones [20]. In this study, we evaluated and compared the most likely prognoses of the supply and demand for radiographers according to the prospective scenario, and prognosti- cated the required number of entrants until the year 2030 to satisfy the demand for these specialists in the labor market. Results. The evaluation of the prospective scenario of the supply and demand for radiographers until the year 2030 showed a gap between the supply and demand for these specialists, which is likely to increase from 2016-2017 on. In 2020, the shortage was predicted to be 0.13 position per 10,000 population, and in 2030 – 0.37 position per 10,000 population. To avoid the predicted shortage of these specialists and to meet the need for them in the prospective scenario, the number of students accepted for studies of radiography should be increased by nearly one-fourth, compared to the current numbers. Conclusions. To meet the prognosticated demand for radio- graphy specialists according to the prospective scenario (which is most likely), the yearly number of entrants should be increased by up to 30% during the period of 2013-2026

Keyword(s): radiographers; studies; planning
DOI: 10.5200/sm-hs.2015.033
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